The world’s largest “think-thanks” about tourism has just ended. He gave us materials to think and write for a whole year. After years of monitoring, I can say that trends are announced here that will only become “mainstream”. Just when you get used to the new situation, a new change is already announced… IT MAY SEEM TOO SCIENTIFICALLY, BUT THESE CHANGES ARE COMING In general, there is pressure to reduce long-distance travel and increase short journeys for which multimodular transport systems can be used: rail + car shearing, bike shearing. In the future, buildings should be built of wood, not reinforced concrete (wood is renewable, trees absorb CO2, and the use of wood as a building material does not produce as much CO2 as the use of reinforced concrete). The number of trips is growing from year to year due to low prices (economy), increasing connections in air transport (availability), digital technology (ease of booking). Travel has become an integral part of every man’s life, even a necessity of life. On this basis, the tourism sector with ancillary services is making strong progress.On the other hand, there are growing demands to reduce the number of passengers in some destinations due to “overtourism”. New taxes are being introduced, such as passes to enter the city; representatives of the luxury tourism segment emphasize that travel is not everyone’s right but only someone’s privilege. LIFE ON THE SCALE The World Tourism Organization promotes the development of sustainable and responsible tourism, tourism that benefits the local community, that preserves the environment, cultural heritage, traditions and people in the local community. Then again, there are observations from some circles that family accommodation, in the community, is harmful, that it has a devastating effect on the tourism industry and that it encourages “overtourism”. But that’s why corporations are building beautiful, environmentally friendly resorts in destinations where there is a lack of capacity, they are building new cruise ships because everyone wants to sail into the Grand Canal in Venice… Mankind is rapidly wasting the time left to repair the severe consequences of excessive CO2 emissions. Everything looks like a reconstruction of major accidents in the documentary series “Minutes to Disaster”. Tourism is one of the causes, but also the losers of climate change. One of the world’s greatest experts on climate impacts, Prof. Dr. Dr. Hans Hansach Schellnhuber, director emeritus of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, was very specific in his presentation. Global warming is melting the ice, raising the sea level, and thus the beaches are disappearing, and in the future all the big cities on the coast. As a result, the most attractive attractions for travel disappear. EXISTING TRENDS AND THE FUTURE To stop global warming at + 1,5 degrees Celsius, we need to halve CO2 emissions every ten years. If we do not achieve this, crossing the critical limit of 2 degrees Celsius will activate that almost unbelievable scenario of the disappearance of the current coastal belt on all continents. The cuts are very painful. Especially for the tourism industry. The introduction of alternative fuel for ships (LNG as a transition fuel, reintroduction of wind power, etc.), reduction of the number of flights on intercontinental routes and the abolition of short flights between cities in the same country are requested. A large investment is required in connecting Europe by high-speed rail. Global warming is also affecting the Gulf Stream, which is losing intensity and direction. If this changes significantly, the coasts of Western Europe will be hit by severe cold. Due to rising sea temperatures and higher acidity (CO2 that dissolves in the sea), coral reefs are disappearing. All this affects life and tourism. Tourism, on the other hand, is to blame for 8% of global CO2 emissions, with the largest emissions coming from aircraft and large ships. One large ship emits an amount of CO2 equal to that emitted by as many as a million cars. SUSTAINABLE AND RESPONSIBLE TOURISM CONTRADICTIONS For some time to come, the volume of tourist traffic will grow according to current trends. Especially after Chinese companies set out strongly to conquer the Western market. However, by force or favor over the next ten years, tourist flows could return to the regional context. Leading German climatologists and economists agree. There are many other reasons besides “overtourism”, “plastic pollution”, the extinction of coral reefs, but also trade relations among the biggest “players” on the world stage that affect the future of tourism. GOOD NEWS FOR CROATIA WHAT EXPECTS US IN THE NEXT 10 YEARS? Good accessibility by road from the largest emitting tourist markets for Croatia is certainly a great advantage. The ecological transport transition has hit road transport the hardest, the results are optimistic and we need to build our future tourism strategy on that. From Berlin for HrTurizam.hr, Nedo PInezić, www.nedopinezic.com Summing up the impressions from this year’s ITB, I try to define some unique conclusion. However, to make it easier for myself and you, dear readers, to explain what is going on, I have decided to break down that final message. From 1860 and the beginning of the first industrial revolution until 2020, the planet “raised” its average temperature by 1,5 degrees Celsius. Professor Schellnhuber compares such a “small” increase in temperature to an increase in body temperature. This increase indicates a disease that the body is fighting. A larger increase in temperature entails more severe consequences, too high a temperature leads to death. The same thing happens with the earth. The increase in temperature affects the intensity and frequency of the “jetstream”, a “wavy wind” that blows at an altitude of 20.000 meters above the ground at a speed of 300 km / h from west to east. Changes in this wind bring intense periods of drought, heat or heavy rainfall with hurricanes, floods. The German car industry is already following the agenda presented by Prof. Schellnhuber. It is planned that by 2030, as many as 30% of cars in traffic will be electric cars. Cars will be less and less bought by private persons, but an innovative system of “car sharing” will be used. Increasing taxes on CO2 are also envisaged, which could affect airlines and, indirectly, air travel. Ships already have to gradually switch to alternative fuels, primarily LNG. The entire tourism sector is required to adopt a “Less CO2 strategy”. So far, something similar is happening with the disposable plastic removal plan (large hotel chains, cruising companies ().