2016 Election Observer: David Campbell

first_imgEditor’s Note: Throughout the 2016 presidential campaign, The Observer will sit down with Notre Dame experts to break down the election and its importance to students. In this first installment, Managing Editor Jack Rooney asks Political Science Department Chair David Campbell about the upcoming primaries and the biggest issues of the campaign.Jack Rooney: Iowa caucuses in less than two weeks and New Hampshire votes about a week after that. With voting now imminent and Donald Trump still near the top of most Republican polls, does he actually have a shot at the nomination? David Campbell: This, of course, is the $64,000 question. Everything we know—or thought we knew—about presidential nominations has been upended by Trump. Based on past research, it would seem that he does not have a chance—his supporters have a low likelihood of turning out, the party establishment is against him and (it is easy to forget) he is actually not all that conservative. On the other hand, he keeps defying expectations. I would put his chances, however, at no better than 1 in 3.JR: For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton seems to be the consensus candidate within the party. Is there any way she doesn’t get the nomination?DC: She is definitely the odds-on favorite. While it is tempting to compare Sanders to Obama in 2008, when Obama was able to beat Clinton in spite of her frontrunner status, there are big differences between them. For one thing, Clinton’s lead in endorsements among the Democratic establishment is much greater this year than in 2008. And Sanders is no Obama. His difficulty attracting support among minorities is a huge problem for him.JR: The primary debates, especially the Republican debates, seem to have generated more interest and attention this campaign. Based on political science research, though, how much do the debates matter for candidates and voters?DC: Debates are like pep rallies, as they can fire up supporters. But they rarely change voters’ minds.JR: Moving beyond the upcoming primaries, in your research and opinion, which issue or issues are set to play the biggest role in the general election?DC: At home, income inequality and the uneven performance of the economy are sure to be top issues — that is, by many indicators, the economy is booming, and yet wages have stagnated. I am curious to see whether the Democratic nominee decides to make gun control a high priority issue. In the past, they have skirted this, but it has recently become more salient. Abroad, expect to hear a lot of discussion about ISIS and safeguarding Americans from terrorism. Historically, this would make the election like a combination of 2004 — a national security election — and 2008, which was focused more on the domestic economy.JR: More specific to a college campus like Notre Dame, which issue do you think should matter most to college students this election cycle?DC: I would pick two. First, the inequality in the current economic system is a pressing issue, as it means that America is losing its traditional middle class. This affects all of us. Second, the environment should continue to be a concern, as it is for many millennials already. While I do not expect the environment to be a top issue in the general election, this does not negate its importance for the rising generation.Tags: 2016, 2016 presidential campaign, 2016 Presidential Election, Debates, Donald Trump, hillary clinton, income inequality, Iowa Caucus, ISIS, New Hampshire Primary, political sciencelast_img read more

LI Cops Holiday DWI Crackdown Starts Wednesday

first_imgSign up for our COVID-19 newsletter to stay up-to-date on the latest coronavirus news throughout New York Police across Long Island will be cracking down on drunken drivers and adding patrols around shopping centers through New Years starting Thanksgiving Eve, one of the biggest bar nights of the year.Nassau, Suffolk and New York State police are launching Wednesday the month-long holiday enforcement efforts that include sobriety checkpoints and unmarked units looking for distracted drivers in addition to regular patrols.“Police patrols will demonstrate zero tolerance for individuals who are driving while under the influence of drugs and alcohol,” Nassau County Executive Ed Mangano said. “Think before you drink this holiday and arrive alive….don’t drink and drive!”He urged drivers to buckle up, stay off their phones while behind the wheel and if they drink, find a designated driver, take a cab or mass transit or spend the night where the party is being held.A Suffolk police spokeswoman said officers will be adding patrols on foot, bicycle and vehicles in downtowns and malls for crowd control as well as ramping up enforcement of driving while intoxicated laws.State Troopers will also be conducting DWI checkpoints in concert with their “Operation Hang Up” initiative in which undercover police vehicles will be looking for drivers texting or talking on their cell phones.last_img read more

Andy Murray says he needs time after skipping U.S. Open singles

first_img“I need time, and it’s not going to come back in one week or one tournament. It’s been a long process to get here, but to get back maybe to where I want to get is going to take a lot of time and a lot more work. My mentality changed a lot because I wasn’t in pain anymore. And I was always worried, ‘What will I do with myself without tennis?’ But actually, once I got rid of the pain, I realized I didn’t really need tennis. Tennis wasn’t the most important thing for me.”I’m obviously happy to be back playing. I thought it maybe would have changed my perspective completely on things, but I’m sitting here disappointed, which I think is probably a good thing, and if I want to get back to playing at a high level, if I was sort of just happy to be back on the court and not really worried about the outcome, then I’d be a bit maybe concerned about that.” Andy Murray to skip U.S. Open singles Andy Murray feeling ‘zero pain’ ahead of singles return in Cincinnati Rusty Andy Murray falls to Richard Gasquet in Cincinnati singles return Andy Murray said he needs time to get back to his best after opting not to play singles at the upcoming U.S. Open.Murray, a three-time grand slam champion, made his long-awaited singles comeback at the Western & Southern Open, where he lost 6-4, 6-4 to Richard Gasquet in the first round Monday. “We were hoping to maybe hold a wild card until a little bit closer to the time to see how I feel and get some matches hopefully and a bit of practice,” said Murray, the 2012 US Open champion. “[It was] a decision I made with my team. I didn’t want to take a wild card today because I just didn’t know how I was going to feel after a match. I felt like I wanted to be fair for me to maybe try and get a couple of matches in before making a decision like that.”Gasquet goes on in Cincy @richardgasquet1 defeats Andy Murray on his singles return to reach the 2R: @TennisTV | @CincyTennis pic.twitter.com/MRsYgRmod9— ATP Tour (@ATP_Tour) August 12, 2019Murray, who looked rusty against Gasquet, added: “If I would have taken the wild card and then not played, then I would have been getting loads of questions about my hip and, ‘Why has he turned it down? Is something wrong? What’s the problem?'”It was more likely that I was not going to [play], because although I did fine in the match today, physically, my legs felt quite heavy at the end of the match, and that’s probably not going to change a whole lot in a couple of weeks.”Murray, who won the doubles title with Feliciano Lopez on his return to the ATP Tour at Queen’s Club in June, continued: “I just haven’t played a match for seven months. I hardly played before then, either. I haven’t played many matches in the past 18 months, really. It’s going to take time, and I haven’t been practicing lots of singles until recently. It was Murray’s first singles match since the Australian Open in January after undergoing hip resurfacing surgery, which left the former world No. 1’s storied career in serious doubt.Despite his return to the singles circuit, Murray will skip the US Open, though the 32-year-old plans to play in both the doubles and mixed doubles at Flushing Meadows. Related Newslast_img read more

PBSO: Fired Employee Makes Hoax Active Gunman 911 Call to Local Business

first_imgLaw enforcement officers say a local business fell victim to a hoax active gunman situation last week.With their guns drawn and SWAT gear on, and helicopter and drones flying overhead, the officers entered a Palm Springs business last Thursday prepared to confront what they had been told was a deadly active gunman scenario.Rhonda Oliva, officer manager for Beacon Irrigation and Lighting, says 28-year-old Jeremy Riley had been fired from the business about 30 minutes before the call was made, for showing up to work about an hour late for his second day on the job.He apparently made the hoax 911 call shortly afterward.Deputies arrested Riley that day and charged him with giving a false report of using a firearm in a violent manner.A judge also ordered that he undergo a mental-health evaluation and be held in the Palm Beach County Jail without the possibility of being released on bond.Riley was arrested at his home near the business, according to sheriff’s authorities.Oliva says, “We give them all applause and kudos. We wanted this guy caught and put in jail because it was just obviously wrong. Everyone’s preparing for a hurricane. … That’s the last thing we needed.”She adds that Riley did not appear focused during his first day of work, “but there was nothing that jumped out that said run the other way.” In addition, his background check and references came back clean.According to Oliva, Riley spent his first day working on pools. Another employee called and told her that Riley apparently did not have lunch money, so she had someone pay for his meal. She also paid Riley for the full workday on the spot, to allow him to cover his phone bill.However, Riley showed up late for work the next day, prompting the supervisor to fire him.Within 30 minutes of his termination, 911 dispatchers received the following call:“Yes, I worked at Beacon Irrigation and Lighting and there’s a guy here with a gun.“He’s shooting people, please!”The call then disconnected.As deputies approached the business, they spoke with employees at a neighboring office who alleged that they had heard a gunshot nearby about five minutes earlier. Records show that Riley’s phone was pinging nearby, which indicates that he was probably still in the immediate area as the deputies surrounded the business.“It was horrific,” Oliva says. She adds, “I don’t think I’ll ever forget that.” When deputies determined the area was safe, they listened to a voice message that Riley had left on the company’s phone. In it, he says, “I promise you guys will regret it,” he reportedly said in reference to his termination. “Save this phone call. You can use it as evidence. “Karma is a (expletive).”last_img read more

Lacey City Council Seeking Youth Representatives to Council Advisory Boards

first_imgSubmitted by The City of LaceyThe Lacey City Council is currently seeking applicants to serve as youth representatives on the Parks Board, Historical Commission, and Library Board. This is a great opportunity for students to participate in the government process while serving their community.Eligible candidates should be 16 to 18 years of age, enrolled as a Junior or Senior in a public, private, or home school within the North Thurston Public School District, and be a resident of Lacey or its urban growth area. Applications will be accepted through June 1. The term of office is for one year from September to September and is limited to one term. The youth representative will be appointed by the Mayor.Interested volunteers can contact Jenny Bauersfeld at (360) 413-4387, or by email at jbauersf@ci.lacey.wa.us.  Applications are also available in the Career Center of any NTPS high school, and on the City’s website at www.ci.lacey.wa.us. Facebook0Tweet0Pin0last_img read more